Auto Chess; Drodo cornered

The Auto Chess genre is on fire. The original DOTA Auto Chess by Drodo Studio kicked off the storm and quickly surpassed 300,000 concurrent players. At breakneck speed, both Valve and Riot Games have launched their own Auto Chess inspired spins and both have grown very quickly.

Today, it is probable that both Riot and Valve's versions have surpassed Drodo's in active players. The only piece we await in this contest is Riot's delivery of a mobile version, which will be their first successful product on mobile. As usual, Blizzard will be too late.

The big question for me: Is this war over? And did Drodo let the win go?

I'm a big fan of Drodo and have reached Bishop-6 on Drodo's mobile Auto Chess Origins which launched on iOS Jun 5, 2019. They've accomplished a dream of many studios to create a new genre with a massive global audience. This is a moment reminiscent of the birth of MOBA on the Warcraft 3 mod scene and history looks to repeat itself with the pioneer not ending up the winner. 

The cheese for all these players has to be securing the largest % of the players for the genre. Drodo has tried to capitalize on their first-mover advantage by forming alliances with Dragonest (publisher), Epic Games (PC distributor) and IMBA (eSports), but I'm not sure if they picked the right strategy or have executed on the right dimensions. 

Some of my thoughts:

1. CHINA
   
   Drodo have an inherent advantage on the geo dimension of the war. It is said that even on a good day, less than 10% of League's DAU is from North America and presumably most of their playerbase is from China.
   
   Drodo will be able to better navigate that tricky, high barrier market as a native. Riot as a wholly owned subsidiary of Tencent Games will also compete well, and this is where Valve will lose out as the race goes on.
   
   Instead of picking Dragonest, another giant like Netease would have been a better partner for the war. You have to admire Drodo's spunk, but this is a high stakes table and guerilla will not scale.
   
    
2. PRODUCT DESIGN
   
   Drodo delivered a great core design but seems to struggle with both UX and thinking through how much RNG should be intertwined with the experience.
   
   That both Drodo's mod and mobile versions continue to contain UX inconveniences that they have only begun to improve on because their competitors have done so is appalling. The focus of Auto Chess should be strategy, not high APMs where you're forced to temporarily deposit your pieces on the board while you execute a combine or reroll to search.
   
   RNG permeating all aspects of Drodo's take including in-session matchmaking and item drops may also turn out to be problematic. Thematically, it makes sense, but I think it is overextended and a negative for an eSports product. Significant parts of the game are rendered to luck, not player choice. DOTA Underlords has a better take on items and I believe Drodo will eventually try to change.
   
   The one thing I'm not sure any of the players have a strong grasp on is solving the content treadmill; it cannot follow the same path as MOBAs have by constantly adding new pieces, because type expansion on any rarity lowers the chances of acquiring enough dupes for a combine. This is a gacha odds problem that F2P, lootbox and dupe-focused companies like Lilith Games would have better mastery over. Drodo has not exhibited knowledge of a solution path and it will be a big problem for all players to tackle.
   
   For all of the above, I think Drodo has been slow to understand that if their product is perceived to be behind the curve then players will leave. This isn't normally true if a competition has normalized, but in a young, quickly expanding landscape and the competition having an inherent IP advantage, Drodo is squandering their lead.
   
    
3. VISUAL DESIGN / IP
   
   Riot utilizing League and Valve wrapping DOTA 2 in their takes is incredible ammunition for this fight. These players are going to need a good reason to spend their time in a world they don't already know and the League IP is particularly well developed.
   
   Drodo's Auto Chess Origins has a bright, almost cartoony tone. Many of its characters have cute proportions and the environment they battle in is idyllic. This contrasts with the League and DOTA IP to give them a unique voice on the market, but the complexity of the game itself attracts players that typically demand more fidelity and weight in their experience.
   
   It appears to me that Drodo chose this visual style "because mobile". The biggest mobile hits like Candy Crush and Clash of Clans have a casual look, with the latter containing a decent amount of complexity, but Game of War having a grittier if bland look suggests the market also has appetite for more. It's a question of audience, and I feel Drodo has been clumsy in their execution. Today, I feel its IP and visual design will not be an asset in the fight.

Drodo is cornered. Their 6-month lead has resulted in very little of any sort of moat and it's not squirrels nipping at their heels... the giants are at the table. Could Drodo have made better choices? Yes, but that is in the past. Today, looking forward for the rest of 2019, it will take a series of great decisions executed immaculately, combined with some blunders from Riot, for Drodo to end this year as Auto Chess winners. I see no indication they will get it done.

Prediction: Riot dominates Auto Chess with Teamfight Tactics by EOY 2019. Excellent design team, great IP, strong analytics and competitiveness in China will see them through. Mobile is a weaker point for Riot that Drodo has some lead time on, but it won't last.